This recent Frost and Sullivan study (requires registration to access) has been making the healthcare IT and EMR blog rounds lately. The parts of the study that are most interesting to consider is their estimated EHR market size.

A study by Frost & Sullivan predicts that revenue for the U.S. ambulatory electronic health record (EHR) market will double from $1.3 billion in 2009 to an estimated $2.6 billion in 2012. Further, by 2013, the market will reach its peak, posting revenue of $3 billion. However, by 2016 market saturation will have occurred and revenue is expected to fall to $1.4 billion.

That’s right. They estimate in 2013 the ambulatory EHR market will be $3 billion. Now compare that number with the $36 billion of EHR stimulus money that’s available (or whichever ARRA EMR stimulus projection you prefer). Are hospitals really going to take that much of the EHR stimulus money? Something just doesn’t feel right about these numbers.

Other salient points from the study I wrote about in my posts about Complex Reimbursement as the Real Driver in EHR Adoption and the reshuffling of providers favoring Large EHR vendors.